Three observations on AGI's economic impact
Originally posted on LinkedIn, March 6, 2025.
In March 2025, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman published a post titled “Three Observations.” He describes how humanity is approaching AGI, artificial general intelligence, and what that could mean for the economy and our lives. Three points stood out to me:
- Abundance: “We can imagine a world where all diseases are cured, we have more time with our families, and we fully realize our creative potential.”
- Scale: “In a decade, perhaps every person will be able to accomplish more than the most influential person can today... AGI will be an unprecedented force multiplier for human will, allowing everyone to have more impact than ever before... By 2035, every person could draw on intellectual capacity equal to all of humanity in 2025.”
- Cost: “The cost of a token using GPT-4 in early 2023 compared with GPT-4o in mid-2024 fell by a factor of 150. Moore’s law changed the world by doubling every 18 months. This is unimaginably powerful.”
The analogy I liked most was this one: “AI may be like the transistor, a major scientific discovery that is absorbed into the economy and affects every field.”
We no longer talk about “transistor companies,” just as we no longer talk about “internet companies.” Yet transistors are inside every electronic device we own. A smartphone contains billions of them, but we never interact with them directly. We think about what they make possible: communication, entertainment, and productivity.
Altman argues that AI will work the same way. It will become invisible but present everywhere, from our cars to our children’s toys.
